Analysis summary pointing to a rise:

1. Strong Thanksgiving week + futures gently positive

   • The S&P 500 is coming off a four-day winning streak, up about 3.2% for Thanksgiving week, with AI/tech leading and rate-cut hopes in December underpinning sentiment. 

   • U.S. stock futures this morning are up only a touch (S&P futures around +0.02% pre-market), which is more “steady/constructive” than euphoric. 

2. Short, low-volume session = more chance of “not much happening”

   • Today is a Black Friday half-day – NYSE and Nasdaq close early at 1 p.m. ET.

   • These sessions are typically thin on volume and often just drift in the direction of the prevailing trend rather than making a big statement move, which is why I’ve given a large neutral probability (32%).

3. Macro/data: light but not irrelevant

   • The U.S. calendar is relatively light, with things like Chicago PMI and Fed balance sheet data on the docket – interesting, but not usually “crash the market” tier on a half-day. 

   • Meanwhile, articles note that despite this week’s rebound, the major indexes are still on track for small losses in November, which encourages a bit of dip-buying but also keeps some investors cautious / willing to take profits into strength.

4. Noise from a CME futures glitch, but not a macro signal

   • There’s been a temporary CME issue halting some futures trading this morning, which might add a bit of short-term confusion but isn’t a fundamental macro change.

So: trend + modestly positive futures + rate-cut hopes → slight upward bias,
but record-ish levels + early close + low volume + month still down → big chance we just meander near flat and a non-trivial chance of a red close if people decide to bank gains before the weekend.